Climate Variability and Infant Mortality in Africa

Jed Friedman

Variations in heat and precipitation as a result of climate change are expected to have adverse effects on health, particularly among the most vulnerable populations. These changes can affect health directly, through extreme events and changes in the disease environment, as well as indirectly through impact on the economic livelihood of the population. In this paper we use an extensive data set of over 400,000 births combined with detailed historical geospatial weather data on temperature and rainfall, to investigate the impact of extreme weather events on infant survival in Africa. Our results suggest that both extreme heat and extreme rainfall affect the likelihood of infant survival. In particular, we find that excessive heat around the month of birth is predictive of an increased likelihood of death, particularly for neonates but also for older infants. Rainfall during the third trimester of pregnancy increases the likelihood of death for neonates. We also find evidence that excess rainfall can be protective under certain scenarios, most likely as a result of positive income shocks. Using our empirical estimates, we explore four different climate change scenarios that suggest an additional 8 million to 18 million infant deaths in Africa from 2010 to 2030, due to the effects of increased heat and precipitation change, in the absence of effective adaptation or mitigation efforts.