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A Space-Time Model of Fertility and Development in China, 1982-2000

  • 2007-2009
  • Project
King, Katherine, University of Michigan

Study: “A Space-Time Model of Fertility and Development in China, 1982-2000”
PI(s): King, Katherine
Affiliation(s): University of Michigan
Institutional Partner(s): PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates:
Start: 2007
End: 2009
Data Source(s): Census Data with GIS Mapping
Methods: Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Spatial Panel Regression Models
Geographic Location(s): China

Description:
China’s fertility decline over the last 30 years is considered to be the most rapid sustained decline ever recorded worldwide, a dramatic change that results from two sets of causes: rapid socioeconomic improvements and a stringently enforced birth planning policy. This change is so noteworthy that it tends to draw attention away from another dramatic feature of China’s experience: the exceedingly wide geographic variation that still persists. This geographic variation in China is often overlooked, or perhaps broken down by province or along the presumed rural-urban divide. This study applies exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial panel regression models to examine country-level variation in fertility rates in China. Spatial statistics reduce bias. Using country-level data from China’s 1982, 1990, and 2000 censuses, the research team models general fertility rates and changes using variables related to socioeconomic/development characteristics of the counties. While results from earlier studies show a decline in the association of development factors with fertility, the 2000 census data shows that development factors have reappeared as important predictors of fertility rates.

Research Outputs:
King, Katherine Elizabeth. (2011). Biological, Psychosocial, and Social Capital Implications of the Neighborhood Built Environment (Doctoral Dissertation). University of Michigan.

Thornton, Arland et al. (2010). Creating Questions and Protocols for an International Study of Ideas About Development and Family Life. In Janet Harkness et al. (Eds.), Survey Methods in Multinational, Multiregional, and Multicultural Contexts. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.


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