PI(s): Amaral, Ernesto
Affiliation(s): University of Texas, Austin
Institutional Partner(s): PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates:
Start: 2006
End: 2007
Data Source(s): Census Data
Methods: MV Analysis
Geographic Location(s): Brazil
Description:
With rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity, the age structure of the labor force in developing countries has changed rapidly. Changing relative supply of workers by age group and by educational attainment can have profound effects on labor costs. The impacts of shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population have been studied in relation to the effect of the baby-boom generation on the earnings of different age groups in the U.S. However, this topic has received little attention in the context of Asian and Latin American countries, which are now experiencing substantial shifts in their age-education distributions. Using data on 502 local Brazilian markets from four censuses between 1970-2000, the study examines the impact of the changing size of the adult male population (grouped by age and education) on the earnings of employed men. The results suggest that age-education groups are not adequate substitutes so that larger age-education cohorts see decreased wage rates, particularly among more-educated groups. The extent of substitution has increased over time; therefore, the decreasing size of the least-skilled labor force today is barely raising the wage for remaining members.
Research Outputs:
Amaral, Ernesto F. L. (2008). Improvements of Techniques to Estimate Migration Rates: An Application with Brazilian Censuses Data. Population Review, 47 (2), 1-24. DOI: 10.3386/w13533
Amaral, Ernesto F. L., Hamermesh, Daniel S., Potter, Joseph E. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L. G. (2007). Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for Brazil. National Bureau of Economic Research , (13533). DOI: 10.1353/prv.0.0007
Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Potter, Joseph E. (2009). Políticas de población, programas gubernamentales y fecundidad : una comparación entre el Brasil y México. Notas de Población, 87, 7-34. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.20
Amaral, Ernesto F. L., Potter, Joseph E., Hamermesh, Daniel S. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L. G. (2013). Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter? Demographic Research, 28, 581-612.10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.20
Amaral, Ernesto F. L., Presentation, Population Association of America Conference 2014, The Influence of Demographic Transitions on Economic Development in Brazil