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Simulation Model of Fertility’s Effects on Economic Growth

  • 2007-2010
  • Project
Ashraf, Quamrul H., Williams College

Study: “Simulation Model of Fertility’s Effects on Economic Growth”
PI(s): Ashraf, Quamrul H.
Co-PI(s): Weil, David; Wilde, Joshua
Affiliation(s): Williams College
Institutional Partner(s): PRB Center
Project Dates:
Start: 2007
End: 2010
Data Source(s): Secondary Data
Methods: Simulation Model
Geographic Location(s): Cross-Country Analysis

This research program aims to increase the understanding of how economy-wide policy interventions aimed at reducing fertility contribute to long-term economic growth. Specifically, we employ an economic-demographic simulation model to provide a quantitative assessment of the effect of reductions in fertility on output per capita. Using well-identified microeconomic estimates to build macroeconomic projections, our simulation model incorporates various channels through which a reduction in the total fertility rate affects output per capita, including changes in demographic structure, educational attainment, labor supply, the rate of capital accumulation, changes in parental resources devoted to childrearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources.

Research Outputs:
Ashraf, Quamrul H., Weil, David N. & Wilde, Joshua. (2013). The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth. Population and Development Review, 39 (1), 97-130. DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00575.x

Ashraf, Quamrul H., Weil, David N. & Wilde, Joshua. (2011). The effect of interventions to reduce fertility on economic growth (No. w17377). National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: 10.3386/w17377

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